UPST in the Spotlight: Strong Cash Flow & Upside Outlook

Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for UPST ($0.00 to $331.84 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-09 to 2026-09), UPST’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $0.00 and $331.84.

Forecast uncertainty appears steady, with the price range ($66.34 – $66.34 to $2.73 – $331.84) showing little change over the horizon.

UPST demonstrates, with its Trailing P/E at N/A and Forward P/E at 138.79x, reflects a premium valuation that warrants careful consideration. Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of 6.24x and Price/Book of 7.02x show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics provide insight into market positioning.

From an enterprise value perspective, The enterprise value to revenue ratio of 7.02x indicates reasonable revenue-based valuation, and its the EV/EBITDA multiple of 1125.87x suggests a potentially stretched valuation. These valuation metrics provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current market positioning.

Although the market considers Upstart Holdings, Inc. to be a key player in the Credit Services industry with a 5.52 B market cap, its enterprise value is much higher at 6.65 B, with 1.13B of that value added by debt. Investors are confident about Upstart Holdings, Inc.’s future earnings, but keep in mind the risk of that large amount of debt.

The valuation ratios tell an interesting story: at 7.02x revenue and 1125.87x EBITDA, Upstart Holdings, Inc. trades at a premium to many peers. This reflects the company’s strong market position and brand assets. But it also means the stock may have little room for error. The upcoming 2025-08-05 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether Upstart Holdings, Inc.’s businesses can grow into this valuation. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

An analysis of the key metrics in UPST’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 81.17%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 4.65% operating margin. A 0.62% EBITDA margin indicates UPST is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, UPST can hold onto around $-0.720 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate (90.60%), investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding profit margins.

UPST’s 5.52 M in EBITDA and 718.16 M in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the -6.35 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. The company appears to be balancing its pursuit of growth with the need to maintain profitability. Despite healthy gross margins, there is a significant difference between the company’s gross and net margins (81.17% vs. -0.72%). This is likely due to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to watch. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. UPST needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on UPST. The average recommendation is ‘Hold’. This consensus is based on opinions from 13 analysts(s). Targets average $80.85 (within a range of $20.00 – $105.00). Based on the mean target ($80.85), this implies a potential upside of ~29.6% from the current price ($62.38). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.

UPST’s financial data reveals several areas of concern that warrant caution. The ROE and ROA of -0.96% and -0.49%, respectively, reflects that the company is not very efficient with its capital, and such numbers are usually found in established, stable firms. The 2.13x Debt/Equity ratio (with 1.54 B in debt and 400.56 M in cash) points to the fact that UPST has taken on a considerable amount of debt to fuel its operations and growth. A major concern is the negative operating cash flow of -65.23 M (TTM), indicating the core business is currently using more cash than it generates.

The Current Ratio of 15.74x and Quick Ratio of 3.78x show a solid liquidity position, able to cover its short-term liabilities. This combination of high debt and negative operating cash flow is a significant red flag. It indicates the company is burning through cash while servicing a large debt load, a high-risk situation that could lead to financial distress if not reversed quickly.

In the recent trading period from September 09, 2025 to September 23, 2025, UPST’s stock price achieved a total return of -9.49%. The price fluctuated between a high of $71.38 and a low of $61.00. Average daily trading volume was approximately 8,414,873 shares.

There is currently 22 M worth of short interest in UPST, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 3.5x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take several days for all short positions to be covered. This moderate level indicates a balance between bearish bets and the market’s ability to absorb them without extreme volatility.

With 25.98% of the public float sold short, a high percentage of the float is being shorted, signaling significant bearish conviction from a portion of the market. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s value of 22 M, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. With notable short interest, investors should be aware of potential volatility spikes, which could be triggered by news events that force short sellers to cover their positions.

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $96.43 and a low of $31.40. This wide gap tells us the stock has been through significant fluctuations, likely influenced by market sentiment or company-specific news. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $67.26 is above the 200-day moving average of $58.69. This ‘golden cross’ setup is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.

The stock carries a beta of 2.38x, which means it tends to move more sharply than the broader market—about 138% more volatile. Combined with a high 30-day annualized volatility of 51.2%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

Investing in UPST involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.