Should You Buy MSTR Stock? A detailed Review

Should You Buy MSTR Stock? A detailed Review

MSTR Stock Analysis for Top Dunia

Introduction

Our report delves into Strategy Incorporated (MSTR), a company active in the Software – Application field (Technology sector). As of 2025-05-30 00:00:00, the stock is trading at $369.06, reflecting a notable technical position relative to its moving averages. Trading below the short-term average but above the long-term one can signal weakening momentum that needs monitoring. Valued by the market at roughly $104.61 B, MSTR represents a significant player in its field.

This report offers a multi-faceted analysis of Strategy Incorporated (MSTR), integrating technical signals, fundamental data, and forward-looking forecasts. The aim is to provide investors with a balanced perspective on the stock’s current market standing, potential risks (see Risk Factors), and future performance outlook.

Business Overview

Core activities involve: MicroStrategy Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, provides artificial intelligence-powered enterprise analytics software and services in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making; HyperIntelligence, a context-based…

Metrics Summary

Current Price$369.06
1-Month Forecast$405.74
1-Year Forecast$428.58 (+16.1%)
Technical Sentiment Neutral-Bullish
Volatility (30d Ann.)40.7% 📉
Below SMA 50$370.29
Above SMA 200$344.01
Green Days (30d)13/30 (43%)

Here’s a quick overview of MSTR’s key metrics. Currently priced at $369.06, MSTR has a model-based 1-year forecast around $428.58 (a +16.1% potential change). Sentiment derived from technicals is Neutral-Bullish (Below SMA 50 / Above SMA 200). Price swing intensity is measured by volatility at 40.7%. We delve into more specific technical and fundamental analysis in the subsequent sections.

Detailed Forecast Table

Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for MSTR ($283.69 to $537.29 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-05 to 2026-05), MSTR’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $283.69 and $537.29.

The projected price range remains relatively consistent (from $393.94 – $393.94 to $380.17 – $500.69), implying stable forecast uncertainty.

Month (Period)Min. PriceAvg. PriceMax. PricePotential ROI vs Current ($369.06)Model Signal
2025-05$393.94$393.94$393.94 6.7%Consider Buy
2025-06$382.99$411.95$438.46 11.6%Consider Buy
2025-07$384.24$405.74$427.88 9.9%Consider Buy
2025-08$366.10$396.81$426.23 7.5%Consider Buy
2025-09$283.69$345.21$405.44 -6.5%Consider Short
2025-10$289.86$332.96$385.17 -9.8%Consider Short
2025-11$363.01$416.38$493.33 12.8%Consider Buy
2025-12$474.85$511.13$537.29 38.5%Consider Buy
2026-01$437.41$480.85$521.62 30.3%Consider Buy
2026-02$429.21$456.24$483.14 23.6%Consider Buy
2026-03$392.25$425.73$461.41 15.4%Consider Buy
2026-04$383.59$408.47$442.28 10.7%Consider Buy
2026-05$380.17$428.58$500.69 16.1%Consider Buy

Remember that these forecasts are generated by models, carry inherent uncertainty, and can change with new data or market shifts. Future prices are not guaranteed.

Company Profile

Sector:Technology
Industry:Software – Application
Market Cap:$104.61 B
Employees:1,483

Company Description

A brief overview of the company’s business activities. MicroStrategy Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, provides artificial intelligence-powered enterprise analytics software and services in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making; HyperIntelligence, a context-based, click-free insights to the user by hovering over keywords on the screen; and Enterprise Semantic Graph, a metadata layer that helps ensure data insights are regardless of how far-reaching the applications and users of data may reside.

The company also provides Strategy Support that helps customers achieve their system availability and usage goals through highly responsive troubleshooting and assistance; Strategy Education that offers free and paid learning options; and Strategy Consulting, which provides architecture and implementation services to help customers realize their desired results. In addition, it engages in the development of bitcoin.

The company offers its services through direct sales force and channel partners. It serves the U.S. government, state and local governments, and government agencies, as well as a range of industries, including retail, banking, technology, manufacturing, insurance, consulting, healthcare, telecommunications, and the public sector. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

Valuation Metrics

To gauge if MSTR’s stock is fairly priced, investors often turn to valuation metrics. These ratios compare the company’s stock price to its financial performance (like earnings or sales) or its intrinsic value (like book value). This section explores these critical indicators. Remember, a thorough analysis involves looking at these ratios in the context of MSTR’s own past performance 📜, how it stacks up against competitors 👥, and the overall market sentiment. One metric alone is rarely definitive, but collectively they offer valuable clues.

Forward P/E Ratio: -870.86x

The Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of -870.86x indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of MSTR’s anticipated earnings over the next fiscal period. A lower Forward P/E can sometimes suggest that the stock is undervalued relative to its future earnings potential, or it might reflect market expectations of slower growth. Conversely, a higher Forward P/E often implies that investors have high growth expectations, or that the stock is perceived as a premium quality name. It’s a forward-looking measure, so the accuracy of the underlying earnings estimates is crucial.

Other Key Valuation Ratios:

  • Price/Sales (TTM): 227.76x – Compares the company’s stock price to its total sales per share over the past 12 months. This can be particularly useful for valuing companies that are not yet profitable or are in cyclical industries where earnings can be volatile.
  • Price/Book (MRQ): 3.09x – Measures the market’s valuation of a company compared to its book value (assets minus liabilities) on its most recent quarterly balance sheet. A lower P/B ratio could mean the stock is undervalued. It’s often used for valuing financial institutions or capital-intensive businesses.

Total Valuation

Moving beyond simple market cap, total valuation metrics provide deeper insight. Looking beyond market cap, the Enterprise Value (EV), currently N/A, offers a broader view of MSTR’s value by including debt and cash. Relating this EV to performance, the EV/Revenue multiple stands at 243.47x, and the EV/EBITDA multiple is -14.79x, gauging value against sales and core operational earnings respectively. These figures help evaluate MSTR’s price relative to its business scale and operational results. Note the upcoming earnings (Est: 2025-05-01) and ex-dividend (N/A) dates.

Market Cap$104.61 B
Enterprise Value$112.74 B
EV/Revenue (TTM)243.47x
EV/EBITDA (TTM)-14.79x
Next Earnings Date2025-05-01

Profitability Growth

This section examines MSTR’s ability to generate profit and expand its business. Key profitability metrics include Gross Margin (70.95%), Operating Margin (-5331.43%), and Net Profit Margin (0.00%). Growth trends are indicated by YoY Revenue (-3.60%) and Earnings (N/A) increases. Evaluating these margins and growth rates against historical performance 📜 and industry competitors 👥 provides crucial context. These are key indicators of financial performance and future potential.

Profit Margin (TTM)0.00%
Operating Margin (TTM)-5331.43%
Gross Margin (TTM)70.95%
EBITDA Margin (TTM)0.00%
Revenue (TTM)$459.28 M
Revenue Growth (YoY)-3.60%
Gross Profit (TTM)$325.85 M
EBITDA (TTM)$-7.56 B
Net Income (TTM)$-5.34 B

Analyst Insights

This section summarizes the collective view of professional analysts covering MSTR. The consensus recommendation is ‘Buy’. 13 analyst(s) contributed to this consensus view. The mean price target is $525.69, with individual targets ranging from $175.00 – $650.00. The average target ($525.69) suggests roughly 42.4% potential upside compared to the current price ($369.06). This provides a gauge of Wall Street sentiment regarding the stock’s potential.

Recommendation: Buy
Mean Target Price: $525.69
High Target Price: $650.00
Low Target Price: $175.00
Number of Analyst Opinions: 13

Financial Health

This section gauges MSTR’s financial stability and operational effectiveness. We assess health via ROE (-29.68%), D/E ratio (24.44x), liquidity measures (Current: 0.66x, Quick: 0.54x), and operating cash flow ($-84.01 M). The data reflects leverage, liquidity, and returns on equity. Strong cash flow is typically viewed favorably.

Return on Equity (ROE TTM)-29.68%
Return on Assets (ROA TTM)-18.82%
Debt/Equity (MRQ)24.44x
Total Cash (MRQ)$60.30 M
Total Debt (MRQ)$8.19 B
Current Ratio (MRQ)0.66x
Quick Ratio (MRQ)0.54x
Operating Cash Flow (TTM)$-84.01 M
Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM)$-4.67 B

Technical Analysis Summary

Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral-Bullish

This technical overview for MSTR (as of 2025-05-30 00:00:00) covers essential trend, momentum, and volatility indicators. Charts offer more detail, but this summarizes the key signals.

  • Trend: Mixed Trend Signals., suggesting conflicting short-term and long-term momentum requiring careful monitoring.
  • Momentum (RSI): 31.5 (Neutral), indicating balanced momentum.

Moving Average Details

SMA 20: $392.12 (Below)
SMA 50: $370.29 (Below)
SMA 100: $328.99 (Above)
SMA 200: $344.01 (Above)

Technical analysis uses past price and volume data to identify potential future trends but offers no guarantees. Combine with fundamental analysis and risk management.

Short Selling Info

This data shows bets against MSTR. Short selling activity is measured by Short % of Float (10.69%) and Days to Cover (1.90x). The short interest level is elevated. This indicates notable bearish sentiment and carries increased potential for a short squeeze. The low Days to Cover (1.90x) indicates shorts could cover relatively quickly, potentially limiting squeeze duration.

Shares Short$27 M
Short Ratio (Days To Cover)1.90x
Short % of Float10.69%
Shares Short (Prior Month)$29 M
Short Date2025-05-15

Stock Price Statistics

This section summarizes MSTR’s stock price characteristics, including its sensitivity to market movements, historical trading range, recent price fluctuation intensity, and typical trading volume. Price characteristics are summarized by Beta (3.76x), the annual range ($102.40 to $543.00), recent volatility (40.7%), and typical volume (N/A). Beta (3.76x) suggests the stock is more volatile than the overall market. The recent volatility (40.7%) is high, indicating significant price swings.

52 Week High$543.00
52 Week Low$102.40
50 Day MA$354.99
200 Day MA$295.95
Beta3.76x
Volatility (30d Ann.)40.7% 📉

Dividends Shareholder Returns

Here we examine MSTR’s capital return policy via dividends and share repurchases. No substantial regular dividend payment is indicated for MSTR based on available data. Significant share repurchases are not indicated by available data.

Payout Ratio0.00x
Trailing Dividend Rate$0.00
Trailing Dividend Yield0.00x
Last Split Date2024-08-08
Last Split Factor10:1

Conclusion Outlook

Short-Term Technical Snapshot

  • Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral-Bullish
  • Price Trend vs MAs: mixed (below SMA50, above SMA200)
  • Momentum (RSI): Neutral (31.5)
  • 📊Support / Resistance (30d): ~$358.50 / ~$430.35

Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook

  • 1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~+16.1% avg. change to ≈$428.58
  • Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: -29.68%, D/E: 24.44x)
  • Valuation Snapshot: Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -870.86x)
  • Recent Growth (YoY): N/A (Rev: -3.60%, Earn: N/A)
  • Analyst Consensus: Buy (Target: $525.69)

Overall Assessment & Outlook

Considering both technical momentum and fundamental drivers, MSTR exhibits Neutral-Bullish technical sentiment alongside moderate fundamental health. From a valuation standpoint, it looks Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -870.86x). Models project a 1-year path indicating potential upside (+16.1%), targeting ≈$428.58. Careful consideration of these points relative to identified risks and their individual investment horizon.

Note: This report combines model projections and public data for educational use. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Risk Factors

Investing in MSTR involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.

  • ⚠️ High Volatility: Recent annualized volatility (40.7%) suggests significant price swings.
  • ⚠️ Overall market fluctuations can impact the stock.
  • ⚠️ Factors specific to the Software – Application industry or Technology sector can affect performance.
  • ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
  • ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.

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