ADT Stock: Innovative Moves Amid Neutral-Bullish

The detailed monthy forecast below outlines the model’s expectations for ADT’s price evolution ($7.67 to $13.13). It includes projected ranges (Min, Avg, Max), potential ROI based on the average projection versus the current price, and a derived model signal for each period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-07 to 2026-07), ADT’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $7.67 and $13.13.

The projected price range remains relatively consistent (from $8.47 – $8.47 to $8.54 – $13.13), implying stable forecast uncertainty.

ADT demonstrates, with its Trailing P/E at 11.81x and Forward P/E at 10.48x, suggests an attractive valuation opportunity. This suggests potential earnings growth expectations Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of 1.36x and Price/Book of 1.89x show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics provide insight into market positioning.

From an enterprise value perspective, The enterprise value to revenue ratio of 2.91x indicates reasonable revenue-based valuation, and its the EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.51x suggests reasonable earnings-based valuation. These valuation metrics provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current market positioning.

Although the market considers ADT Inc. to be a key player in the Security & Protection Services industry with a 6.88 B market cap, its enterprise value is much higher at 14.70 B, with 7.82B of that value added by debt. Investors are confident about ADT Inc.’s future earnings, but keep in mind the risk of that large amount of debt.

The valuation ratios tell an interesting story: at 2.91x revenue and 5.51x EBITDA, ADT Inc. trades at a valuation that reflects its market position. This reflects the company’s strong market position and brand assets. But it also means the stock may have little room for error. The upcoming 2025-07-24 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether ADT Inc.’s businesses can grow into this valuation, while the 2025-09-11 ex-dividend date serves as a reminder that ADT Inc. still rewards shareholders even as it invests for growth. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

An analysis of the key metrics in ADT’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 81.28%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 26.57% operating margin. A 52.84% EBITDA margin indicates ADT is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, ADT can hold onto around $12.310 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate (6.80%), investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding profit margins.

ADT’s 2.67 B in EBITDA and 4.11 B in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the 640.02 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. The company appears to be balancing its pursuit of growth with the need to maintain profitability. Despite healthy gross margins, there is a significant difference between the company’s gross and net margins (81.28% vs. 12.31%). This is likely due to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to watch. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. ADT needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on ADT. The average recommendation is ‘Buy’. This consensus is based on opinions from 5 analysts(s). Targets average $9.38 (within a range of $9.00 – $10.40). The average target ($9.38) suggests roughly 11.1% potential upside compared to the current price ($8.44). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.

ADTs financial data clearly shows that strengths and weaknesses can appear together. The ROE and ROA of 17.14% and 5.15%, respectively, reflect a highly efficient use of capital, often seen in fast-growing firms. The 2.16x Debt/Equity ratio (with 7.92 B in debt and 92.95 M in cash) points to the fact that ADT has taken on a considerable amount of debt to fuel its operations and growth. Even with its debt, the company’s ability to bring in 1.99 B in operating cash flow (TTM) proves that its core business can steadily produce cash, which is a significant strength.

The Current Ratio of 0.46x and Quick Ratio of 0.26x show potential liquidity issues that might cause trouble if the company’s cash cycle lengthens. Furthermore, ADT’s 867.97 M in levered free cash flow suggests it can still generate significant cash for shareholders even after meeting its financial obligations. For investors, this means that while cash flows appear to cover its debts for now, there is not much space for mistakes. If business results fall or interest rates are high when it tries to refinance, the company could be put under increased financial stress.

In the recent trading period from July 11, 2025 to July 25, 2025, ADT’s stock price achieved a total return of -0.94%. The price fluctuated between a high of $8.80 and a low of $8.29. Average daily trading volume was approximately 11,438,547 shares.

There is currently 21 M worth of short interest in ADT, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 1.4x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take about one day for all short positions to be covered. This low level suggests that short sellers do not currently have significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged ‘short squeeze’ is relatively low.

With 5.97% of the public float sold short, a moderate percentage of the stock is being shorted, showing some bearish sentiment but not an extreme level. This level has decreased recently from 26 M, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. With notable short interest, investors should be aware of potential volatility spikes, which could be triggered by news events that force short sellers to cover their positions.

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $8.80 and a low of $6.53. This moderate gap indicates the stock has experienced notable price swings over the year. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $8.37 is above the 200-day moving average of $7.90. This ‘golden cross’ setup is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.

The stock carries a beta of 1.22x, which means it tends to move more sharply than the broader market—about 22% more volatile. Combined with a low 30-day annualized volatility of 18.5%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

Investing in ADT involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.