ACEL Stock: Hidden Gem or Overhyped? 2025 Deep Dive

Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for ACEL ($9.45 to $15.41 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-08 to 2026-08), ACEL’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $9.45 and $15.41.

The projected price range remains relatively consistent (from $11.96 – $11.96 to $10.22 – $15.21), implying stable forecast uncertainty.

ACEL demonstrates, with its Trailing P/E at 27.75x and Forward P/E at 12.91x, suggests an attractive valuation opportunity. This suggests potential earnings growth expectations Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of 0.73x and Price/Book of 3.60x show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics provide insight into market positioning.

From an enterprise value perspective, The enterprise value to revenue ratio of 1.00x indicates reasonable revenue-based valuation, and its the EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.40x suggests reasonable earnings-based valuation. These valuation metrics provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current market positioning.

Although the market considers Accel Entertainment, Inc. to be a key player in the Gambling industry with a 935.66 M market cap, its enterprise value is much higher at 1.27 B, with 334.34M of that value added by debt. Investors are confident about Accel Entertainment, Inc.’s future earnings, but keep in mind the risk of that large amount of debt.

The valuation ratios tell an interesting story: at 1.00x revenue and 7.40x EBITDA, Accel Entertainment, Inc. appears attractively valued compared to many peers. This reflects the company’s strong market position and brand assets. But it also means the stock may have little room for error. The upcoming 2025-08-05 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether Accel Entertainment, Inc.’s businesses can grow into this valuation. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

An analysis of the key metrics in ACEL’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 30.69%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 8.00% operating margin. A 13.46% EBITDA margin indicates ACEL is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, ACEL can hold onto around $2.750 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate (8.60%), investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding profit margins.

ACEL’s 172.26 M in EBITDA and 392.70 M in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the 35.20 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. The company appears to be balancing its pursuit of growth with the need to maintain profitability. Despite healthy gross margins, there is a significant difference between the company’s gross and net margins (30.69% vs. 2.75%). This is likely due to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to watch. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. ACEL needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

This section summarizes the collective view of professional analysts covering ACEL. The consensus recommendation is ‘Strong Buy’. This consensus is based on opinions from 3 analysts(s). The mean price target is $16.00, with individual targets ranging from $16.00 – $16.00. Based on the mean target ($16.00), this implies a potential upside of ~44.1% from the current price ($11.10). This provides a gauge of Wall Street sentiment regarding the stock’s potential.

ACELs financial data clearly shows that strengths and weaknesses can appear together. The ROE and ROA of 14.84% and 6.38%, respectively, reflect a highly efficient use of capital, often seen in fast-growing firms. The 2.28x Debt/Equity ratio (with 602.94 M in debt and 268.27 M in cash) points to the fact that ACEL has taken on a considerable amount of debt to fuel its operations and growth. Even with its debt, the company’s ability to bring in 128.14 M in operating cash flow (TTM) proves that its core business can steadily produce cash, which is a significant strength.

The Current Ratio of 2.65x and Quick Ratio of 2.39x show a solid liquidity position, able to cover its short-term liabilities. Furthermore, ACEL’s 36.92 M in levered free cash flow suggests it can still generate significant cash for shareholders even after meeting its financial obligations.

Analyzing the last 15 trading days from July 24, 2025 to August 07, 2025, ACEL saw its stock post a return of -10.70%. The recent trading range was between $10.10 and $13.27, with an average volume of 421,987 shares traded daily.

There is currently 1 M worth of short interest in ACEL, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 5.4x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take several days for all short positions to be covered. This moderate level indicates a balance between bearish bets and the market’s ability to absorb them without extreme volatility.

With 2.46% of the public float sold short, a moderate percentage of the stock is being shorted, showing some bearish sentiment but not an extreme level. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s value of 1 M, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. Because the amount of investors shorting is generally low, the market tends to feel more confident and the risks of price swings from sudden short-covering activities are reduced.

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $13.28 and a low of $9.02. This moderate gap indicates the stock has experienced notable price swings over the year. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $12.13 is above the 200-day moving average of $11.30. This ‘golden cross’ setup is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.

The stock carries a beta of 1.32x, which means it tends to move more sharply than the broader market—about 32% more volatile. Combined with a high 30-day annualized volatility of 55.6%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

Investing in ACEL involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.