ABCB in the Spotlight: Strong Cash Flow & Upside Outlook

ABCB in the Spotlight: Strong Cash Flow & Upside Outlook

Metrics Summary

💰 Current Price

$66.42
Live Market Price

🎯 Price Targets & Forecasts

1-Month Forecast:

$70.59

📈 +6.3%

1-Year Forecast:

$74.95

📈 +12.8%

Analyst Mean Target:

$77.33

📈 +16.4%

📈 Trend & Momentum

Trend:

🚀 ▲ Bullish (Price > SMA 50/200)
RSI (14-day):

43.5 (Neutral) ⚖️
MACD:

📉 Bearish Short-Term Trend (-0.32)

📊 Key Technical Levels

Above SMA 50:

✅ $64.59
Above SMA 200:

✅ $61.27
52-Week Range:

📏 $48.27 – $74.56

⚡ Volatility

Volatility (30d Ann.):

18.4% 🏞️
Beta (vs. Market):

0.94xx ⚖️
(Moderate)
Green Days (30d):

17/30 (57%) 🟡

🏢 Ownership

Institutional Ownership:

94.78% 🏛️
Short % of Float:

3.33% 😐
(Moderate Bets)

Right now, ABCB’s stock is trading at $66.42. The technical indicators are showing a bullish pattern because the price is holding relative to both the 50-day ($64.59) and 200-day ($61.27) moving averages. This suggests the stock has been gaining momentum recently. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.5 is Neutral—neither overbought nor oversold—while the MACD indicator shows a bearish short-term trend, meaning there could be some minor pullbacks before the next upward move.

Over the past year, ABCB’s stock has traded between $48.27 and $74.56, which tells us two things: First, investor sentiment has been mixed. Second, the current price is trading mid-range, meaning big swings are less likely unless something major happens. Analysts expect modest growth ahead, with a 1-year target of $74.95 (+12.8%) and an average consensus target of $77.33 (+16.4%). Plus, with 94.78% institutional ownership and very low short interest (3.33%), it seems most big investors are betting on the company’s long-term success rather than a decline.

Detailed Forecast Table

Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for ABCB ($57.47 to $92.63 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-07 to 2026-07), ABCB’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $57.47 and $92.63.

The projected price range remains relatively consistent (from $67.11 – $67.11 to $57.47 – $92.63), implying stable forecast uncertainty.

Month (Period)Min. PriceAvg. PriceMax. PricePotential ROI vs Current ($66.42)Model Signal
2025-07$67.11$67.11$67.11 1.0%Hold/Neutral
2025-08$63.58$69.04$76.41 3.9%Consider Buy
2025-09$62.50$70.59$76.48 6.3%Consider Buy
2025-10$66.18$72.08$80.01 8.5%Consider Buy
2025-11$67.44$75.22$82.12 13.2%Consider Buy
2025-12$67.46$78.61$89.03 18.4%Consider Buy
2026-01$68.07$78.98$90.28 18.9%Consider Buy
2026-02$68.61$79.37$92.19 19.5%Consider Buy
2026-03$65.42$78.20$90.74 17.7%Consider Buy
2026-04$59.58$73.78$87.14 11.1%Consider Buy
2026-05$58.85$72.02$87.05 8.4%Consider Buy
2026-06$59.79$74.78$90.74 12.6%Consider Buy
2026-07$57.47$74.95$92.63 12.8%Consider Buy

Forecasts are model-based estimates, inherently uncertain, and subject to change based on evolving data and market conditions. They do not guarantee future prices.

Company Profile

Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks – Regional
Market Cap: 4.78 B
Employees: 2,672

Company Description

A brief overview of the company’s business activities. Ameris Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Ameris Bank that provides range of banking services to retail and commercial customers. It operates through four segments: Banking Division, Retail Mortgage Division, Warehouse Lending Division, and Premium Finance Division. The company offers commercial and retail checking, regular interest-bearing savings, money market, individual retirement, and certificates of deposit accounts. It also provides commercial real estate, residential real estate mortgage, agricultural, and commercial and industrial loans; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and home equity loans, as well as loans secured by savings accounts and personal credit lines. In addition, the company originates, administers, and services commercial insurance premium loans, equipment finance loans, and small business administration loans. Further, it operates full-service domestic banking offices, and mortgage and loan production offices. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Valuation Metrics

ABCB demonstrates, with its Trailing P/E at 12.24x and Forward P/E at 13.79x, suggests an attractive valuation opportunity. This reflects stable earnings outlook Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of 4.28x and Price/Book of 1.21x show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics provide insight into market positioning.

From an enterprise value perspective, The enterprise value to revenue ratio of 3.70x indicates reasonable revenue-based valuation. These valuation metrics provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current market positioning.

Trailing P/E12.24x
Forward P/E13.79x
Price/Sales (TTM)$4.28
Price/Book (MRQ)$1.21
EV/Revenue (TTM)3.70x

Total Valuation

While Ameris Bancorp has a market cap of 4.78 B, its enterprise value of 4.12 B is lower, reflecting a strong net cash position of approximately 660.00M. This financial strength provides a cushion and flexibility for future investments.

The upcoming 2025-07-28 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether Ameris Bancorp’s businesses can grow into this valuation, while the 2025-06-30 ex-dividend date serves as a reminder that Ameris Bancorp still rewards shareholders even as it invests for growth. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

Market Cap4.78 B
Enterprise Value4.12 B
EV/Revenue (TTM)3.70x
Next Earnings Date2025-07-28
Ex-Dividend Date2025-06-30

Profitability Growth

An analysis of the key metrics in ABCB’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 0.00%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 49.26% operating margin. A 0.00% EBITDA margin indicates ABCB is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, ABCB can hold onto around $35.060 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate (5.70%), investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding profit margins.

ABCB’s N/A in EBITDA and 1.12 B in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the 391.36 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. The company appears to be balancing its pursuit of growth with the need to maintain profitability. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. ABCB needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

Profit Margin (TTM)35.06%
Operating Margin (TTM)49.26%
Gross Margin (TTM)0.00%
EBITDA Margin (TTM)0.00%
Revenue (TTM)1.12 B
Revenue Growth (YoY)5.70%
Gross Profit (TTM)1.12 B
Net Income (TTM)391.36 M
Earnings Growth (YoY)21.30%

Analyst Insights

Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on ABCB. The average recommendation is ‘Buy’. 6 analyst(s) contributed to this consensus view. Targets average $77.33 (within a range of $73.00 – $81.00). Based on the mean target ($77.33), this implies a potential upside of ~16.4% from the current price ($66.42). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.

Recommendation: Buy
Mean Target Price: $77.33
High Target Price: $81.00
Low Target Price: $73.00
Number of Analyst Opinions: 6

Financial Health

ABCBs financial data clearly shows that strengths and weaknesses can appear together. The ROE and ROA of 10.46% and 1.47%, respectively, reflect a highly efficient use of capital, often seen in fast-growing firms.

Return on Equity (ROE TTM)10.46%
Return on Assets (ROA TTM)1.47%
Total Cash (MRQ)1.17 B
Total Debt (MRQ)510.01 M

Historical Performance

In the recent trading period from July 11, 2025 to July 25, 2025, ABCB’s stock price achieved a total return of -1.53%. The price fluctuated between a high of $68.37 and a low of $64.64. Average daily trading volume was approximately 347,300 shares.

Recent Trading Data

DateOpenHighLowCloseVolume
2025-07-25$65.58$66.42$64.64$66.42614,400
2025-07-24$66.21$66.58$65.46$65.68327,900
2025-07-23$67.10$67.10$65.95$66.47486,300
2025-07-22$66.55$67.46$66.38$66.87386,000
2025-07-21$67.45$67.85$66.62$66.68251,700
2025-07-20$67.69$67.83$66.89$67.34226,900
2025-07-19$67.69$67.83$66.89$67.34226,900
2025-07-18$67.69$67.83$66.89$67.34226,900
2025-07-17$66.58$67.68$66.58$67.38286,000
2025-07-16$66.35$66.80$65.13$66.45265,400
2025-07-15$67.99$68.11$65.76$65.77396,600
2025-07-14$67.30$68.37$67.08$68.34319,600
2025-07-13$66.95$67.71$66.47$67.45398,300
2025-07-12$66.95$67.71$66.47$67.45398,300
2025-07-11$66.95$67.71$66.47$67.45398,300

Technical Analysis Summary

CURRENT PRICE: $66.42 | TREND: BULLISH BUT SHOWS SIGNS OF SLOWING

The stock has faced downward pressure, losing -1.51% in the last 15 days. We need to analyze the technicals to see if this is a buying opportunity or a warning of further declines. Let’s break down the key levels.

Trend Strength – Still Bullish

ABCB is trading above its key moving averages, which confirms the uptrend remains intact. The 20-day SMA at $67.06 is acting as immediate dynamic support.

What This Means for Traders?

As long as ABCB holds above the 20-day SMA ($67.06), the bullish momentum could continue. However, a rapid rise can push the stock far from its averages, increasing the risk of a pullback.

Momentum Check – Is Momentum Fading?

The RSI at 43.5 is in a neutral zone, indicating balanced momentum. At the same time, the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting that the upward momentum is beginning to fade.

Trading Strategy:

This neutral RSI reading provides flexibility. Watch for a decisive MACD crossover or a break of a key support/resistance level for the next directional clue.

Bollinger Bands – Testing Key Levels

The stock is testing support near the lower Bollinger Band at $65.76. A bounce from this level would be bullish, while a break below would be a bearish signal.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance: $68.44 (Recent High) → A breakout could push ABCB higher.
  • Support: $67.06 (20-day SMA) → If this breaks, expect a test of $65.76.

Volume Trends – Checking for Conviction

Trading volume is near its recent average, providing neutral confirmation of the current price action.

Support & Resistance – The Trading Plan

Trading Plan:

  • ✅  If ABCB holds above $67.06 → Bullish trend continues, next target $68.44.
  • ⚠️  If it breaks below $67.06 → Expect a dip toward $65.76.
  • 🛑  A drop below $65.76 → Could trigger a deeper correction to the 200-day SMA ($61.27).

Final Verdict – Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Short-Term Traders: The trend is positive but monitor for signs of exhaustion. A neutral stance may be best until a clearer signal emerges from the MACD or volume.
Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend is valid as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA ($61.27). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($64.59) area could present a safer buying opportunity.
New Buyers: Avoid chasing the rally here. Wait for either a confirmed breakout above $68.44 with strong volume, or a pullback to the $67.06 area, which offers a better risk/reward entry.

Bottom Line: The technicals suggest the rally may be running out of steam short-term. While the long-term trend remains bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next major move. Trade carefully and wait for confirmation at key levels.

Short Selling Info

There is currently 2 M worth of short interest in ABCB, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 4.3x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take several days for all short positions to be covered. This moderate level indicates a balance between bearish bets and the market’s ability to absorb them without extreme volatility.

With 3.33% of the public float sold short, a moderate percentage of the stock is being shorted, showing some bearish sentiment but not an extreme level. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s value of 2 M, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. Because the amount of investors shorting is generally low, the market tends to feel more confident and the risks of price swings from sudden short-covering activities are reduced.

Shares Short2 M
Short Ratio (Days To Cover)4.30x
Short % of Float3.33%
Shares Short (Prior Month)2 M
Short Date2025-07-15

Stock Price Statistics

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $74.56 and a low of $48.27. This wide gap tells us the stock has been through significant fluctuations, likely influenced by market sentiment or company-specific news. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $64.59 is above the 200-day moving average of $61.27. This ‘golden cross’ setup is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.

A beta of 0.94x suggests the stock’s movement is generally in line with the broader market. Combined with a low 30-day annualized volatility of 18.4%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

52 Week High$74.56
52 Week Low$48.27
50 Day MA$64.10
200 Day MA$62.95
Beta0.94x
Volatility (30d Ann.)18.4% 📉

Dividends Shareholder Returns

Dividend Summary & Investor Implications

The company currently offers a $0.80 annual dividend per share, translating to a dividend yield of 1.14%—meaning for every $100 invested, shareholders receive $0.80 in dividends annually. This yield is below the 5-year average of 1.35%, suggesting that either the stock price has risen (reducing the yield) or dividend growth hasn’t kept pace with historical trends.

Key Observations & Analysis:

  • The payout ratio of 13.23% is low and conservative, indicating the company uses only ~13% of its earnings to fund dividends. This leaves ample room for future increases or reinvestment in growth.
  • The very low trailing yield of 1.00% hints at a recent dividend initiation or a special, non-recurring payout, warranting further checks for consistency.
  • Investors must own the stock before the upcoming ex-dividend date of 2025-06-30 to receive the next dividend.

Investor Takeaway:

  • Income Investors: The modest yield and low payout ratio suggest dividends are safe but not a primary reason to invest. The focus may be on future dividend growth.
  • Growth Investors: The low payout ratio is a strong signal that a majority of earnings are being reinvested, which could drive future price appreciation.
  • Watch For: Announcements of dividend hikes (which could bring the yield closer to its historical average) or significant stock price changes that would alter the yield.

Dividend Rate$0.80
Dividend Yield1.14%
Payout Ratio13.23%
5 Year Average Dividend Yield1.35%
Trailing Dividend Rate$0.75
Trailing Dividend Yield0.01%
Ex-Dividend Date2025-06-30
Last Split Date2010-06-28
Last Split Factor211:210

Risk Factors

Investing in ABCB involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.

  • ⚠️ Overall market fluctuations can impact the stock.
  • ⚠️ Factors specific to the Banks – Regional industry or Financial Services sector can affect performance.
  • ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
  • ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.

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