AB Bulls vs. Bears: Who Will Win in 2025?

AB Bulls vs. Bears: Who Will Win in 2025?

Metrics Summary

💰 Current Price

$42.88
Live Market Price

🎯 Price Targets & Forecasts

1-Month Forecast:

$39.90

📉 -6.9%

1-Year Forecast:

$42.80

📉 -0.2%

Analyst Mean Target:

$41.07

📉 -4.2%

📈 Trend & Momentum

Trend:

🚀 ▲ Bullish (Price > SMA 50/200)
RSI (14-day):

69.4 (Neutral) ⚖️
MACD:

📈 Bullish Short-Term Trend (0.15)

📊 Key Technical Levels

Above SMA 50:

✅ $40.74
Above SMA 200:

✅ $38.19
52-Week Range:

📏 $30.57 – $43.30

⚡ Volatility

Volatility (30d Ann.):

15.4% 🏞️
Beta (vs. Market):

0.81xx ⚖️
(Moderate)
Green Days (30d):

18/30 (60%) 🟢

🏢 Ownership

Institutional Ownership:

24.22% 🏠
Short % of Float:

0.32% 😊
(Low Bearish Bets)

Right now, AB’s stock is trading at $42.88. The technical indicators are showing a bullish pattern because the price is holding relative to both the 50-day ($40.74) and 200-day ($38.19) moving averages. This suggests the stock has been gaining momentum recently. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.4 is Neutral—neither overbought nor oversold—while the MACD indicator shows a bullish short-term trend, meaning there could be some minor pullbacks before the next upward move.

Over the past year, AB’s stock has traded between $30.57 and $43.30, which tells us two things: First, the stock has recovered significantly from its lows. Second, the current price is near the higher end of that range, meaning big swings are less likely unless something major happens. Analysts expect modest growth ahead, with a 1-year target of $42.80 (-0.2%) and an average consensus target of $41.07 (-4.2%). Plus, with 24.22% institutional ownership and very low short interest (0.32% (Low Bearish Bets)), it seems most big investors are betting on the company’s long-term success rather than a decline.

Detailed Forecast Table

Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for AB ($35.87 to $49.24 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-07 to 2026-07), AB’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $35.87 and $49.24.

Forecast uncertainty appears steady, with the price range ($41.33 – $41.33 to $35.87 – $48.96) showing little change over the horizon.

Month (Period)Min. PriceAvg. PriceMax. PricePotential ROI vs Current ($42.88)Model Signal
2025-07$41.33$41.33$41.33 -3.6%Consider Short
2025-08$37.61$39.69$42.57 -7.4%Consider Short
2025-09$37.51$39.90$42.06 -6.9%Consider Short
2025-10$36.44$39.13$41.52 -8.7%Consider Short
2025-11$37.04$39.64$41.82 -7.6%Consider Short
2025-12$36.65$39.79$43.51 -7.2%Consider Short
2026-01$35.99$39.79$42.82 -7.2%Consider Short
2026-02$37.36$41.26$46.15 -3.8%Consider Short
2026-03$36.60$41.29$45.97 -3.7%Consider Short
2026-04$35.95$41.36$46.32 -3.5%Consider Short
2026-05$36.28$41.61$47.81 -3.0%Consider Short
2026-06$35.91$42.78$49.24 -0.2%Hold/Neutral
2026-07$35.87$42.80$48.96 -0.2%Hold/Neutral

Remember that these forecasts are generated by models, carry inherent uncertainty, and can change with new data or market shifts. Future prices are not guaranteed.

Company Profile

Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Asset Management
Market Cap: 4.62 B
Employees: 4,341

Business Overview

A brief overview of the company’s business activities. AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm is a related adviser The firm manages separate client focused portfolios for its clients. The firm primarily invests in common and preferred stocks, warrants and convertible securities, government and corporate fxed-income securities, commodities, currencies, real estate-related assets and infation-protected securities. The firm employs quantitative analysis along with long-term purchases, short-term purchases, trading, short sales, margin transactions, option strategies including writing covered options, uncovered options and spread strategies to make its investments. The firm obtains external research to complement its in-house research. The firm was formerly known as Alliance Capital Management Holding LP. AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. was founded in 1967 and is based in Nashville,Tennessee.

Valuation Metrics

AB demonstrates, with its Trailing P/E at 12.45x and Forward P/E at 11.59x, suggests an attractive valuation opportunity. This indicates modest improvement expectations Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of 58.67x and Price/Book of 2.33x show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics provide insight into market positioning.

These valuation metrics provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current market positioning.

Trailing P/E12.45x
Forward P/E11.59x
Price/Sales (TTM)$58.67
Price/Book (MRQ)$2.33

Total Valuation

The company’s total valuation, including both its market capitalization and debt, provides a comprehensive view of its worth.

The upcoming 2025-07-24 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.’s businesses can grow into this valuation, while the 2025-08-04 ex-dividend date serves as a reminder that AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. still rewards shareholders even as it invests for growth. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

Market Cap4.62 B
Next Earnings Date2025-07-24
Ex-Dividend Date2025-08-04

Profitability Growth

An analysis of the key metrics in AB’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 100.00%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 100.00% operating margin. A 0.00% EBITDA margin indicates AB is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, AB can hold onto around $478.130 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months.

AB’s N/A in EBITDA and 78.83 M in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the 376.91 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. AB needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

Profit Margin (TTM)478.13%
Operating Margin (TTM)100.00%
Gross Margin (TTM)100.00%
EBITDA Margin (TTM)0.00%
Revenue (TTM)78.83 M
Gross Profit (TTM)78.83 M
Net Income (TTM)376.91 M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-35.60%

Analyst Insights

This section summarizes the collective view of professional analysts covering AB. The consensus recommendation is ‘Hold’. This consensus is based on opinions from 7 analysts(s). The mean price target is $41.07, with individual targets ranging from $36.50 – $46.00. The average target ($41.07) suggests roughly -4.2% potential downside compared to the current price ($42.88). This provides a gauge of Wall Street sentiment regarding the stock’s potential.

Recommendation: Hold
Mean Target Price: $41.07
High Target Price: $46.00
Low Target Price: $36.50
Number of Analyst Opinions: 7

Financial Health

ABs financial data clearly shows that strengths and weaknesses can appear together. Even with its debt, the company’s ability to bring in 372.44 M in operating cash flow (TTM) proves that its core business can steadily produce cash, which is a significant strength.

Return on Equity (ROE TTM)18.54%
Total Debt (MRQ)0
Operating Cash Flow (TTM)372.44 M

Historical Performance

In the recent trading period from July 11, 2025 to July 25, 2025, AB’s stock price achieved a total return of +3.62%. The price fluctuated between a high of $43.30 and a low of $40.35. Average daily trading volume was approximately 176,127 shares.

Recent Trading Data

DateOpenHighLowCloseVolume
2025-07-25$43.01$43.30$42.58$42.88185,000
2025-07-24$42.53$43.10$41.66$42.77177,600
2025-07-23$42.21$42.60$41.76$41.77160,600
2025-07-22$41.49$42.20$41.25$42.02239,300
2025-07-21$41.21$41.83$41.07$41.49175,800
2025-07-20$41.00$41.48$40.89$41.21162,200
2025-07-19$41.00$41.48$40.89$41.21162,200
2025-07-18$41.00$41.48$40.89$41.21162,200
2025-07-17$40.92$41.36$40.85$40.94167,400
2025-07-16$40.70$41.32$40.47$40.89172,200
2025-07-15$41.11$41.25$40.35$40.45175,600
2025-07-14$41.00$41.63$40.87$41.11260,200
2025-07-13$41.28$41.57$41.12$41.38147,200
2025-07-12$41.28$41.57$41.12$41.38147,200
2025-07-11$41.28$41.57$41.12$41.38147,200

Technical Analysis Summary

CURRENT PRICE: $42.88 | TREND: BULLISH

The stock has been on a notable run, gaining +2.90% in just 15 days, but several technical signs suggest we should be cautious about chasing this momentum. Let’s break down what the charts are telling us and how we can position ourselves.

Trend Strength – Still Bullish

AB is trading above its key moving averages, which confirms the uptrend remains intact. The 20-day SMA at $41.41 is acting as immediate dynamic support.

What This Means for Traders?

As long as AB holds above the 20-day SMA ($41.41), the bullish momentum could continue. However, a rapid rise can push the stock far from its averages, increasing the risk of a pullback.

Momentum Check – Is Momentum Fading?

The RSI at 69.4 is in a neutral zone, indicating balanced momentum. At the same time, the MACD histogram is positive, confirming the upward momentum is still in play.

Trading Strategy:

This neutral RSI reading provides flexibility. Watch for a decisive MACD crossover or a break of a key support/resistance level for the next directional clue.

Bollinger Bands – Testing Key Levels

The price is ‘walking the band,’ trading above the upper Bollinger Band ($42.61). This is a sign of a very strong trend, but also increases the risk of a sharp snap-back if momentum stalls.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance: $43.30 (Recent High) → A breakout could push AB higher.
  • Support: $41.41 (20-day SMA) → If this breaks, expect a test of $40.20.

Volume Trends – Checking for Conviction

Trading volume is near its recent average, providing neutral confirmation of the current price action.

Support & Resistance – The Trading Plan

Trading Plan:

  • ✅  If AB holds above $41.41 → Bullish trend continues, next target $43.30.
  • ⚠️  If it breaks below $41.41 → Expect a dip toward $40.20.
  • 🛑  A drop below $40.20 → Could trigger a deeper correction to the 200-day SMA ($38.19).

Final Verdict – Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Short-Term Traders: The trend is positive but monitor for signs of exhaustion. A neutral stance may be best until a clearer signal emerges from the MACD or volume.
Long-Term Investors: The long-term uptrend is valid as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA ($38.19). A pullback to the 50-day SMA ($40.74) area could present a safer buying opportunity.
New Buyers: Avoid chasing the rally here. Wait for either a confirmed breakout above $43.30 with strong volume, or a pullback to the $41.41 area, which offers a better risk/reward entry.

Bottom Line: The technicals suggest the rally may be running out of steam short-term. While the long-term trend remains bullish, a correction seems plausible before the next major move. Trade carefully and wait for confirmation at key levels.

Short Selling Info

There is currently 350 K worth of short interest in AB, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 2.0x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take around 2 days for all short positions to be covered. This low level suggests that short sellers do not currently have significant control over the stock’s price, and the risk of a prolonged ‘short squeeze’ is relatively low.

With 0.32% of the public float sold short, a very low percentage of the available shares are being shorted, indicating a general lack of bearish sentiment among investors. This level has decreased recently from 553 K, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. Because the amount of investors shorting is generally low, the market tends to feel more confident and the risks of price swings from sudden short-covering activities are reduced.

Shares Short350 K
Short Ratio (Days To Cover)2.00x
Short % of Float0.32%
Shares Short (Prior Month)553 K
Short Date2025-07-15

Stock Price Statistics

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $43.30 and a low of $30.57. This moderate gap indicates the stock has experienced notable price swings over the year. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $40.74 is above the 200-day moving average of $38.19. This ‘golden cross’ setup is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.

A beta of 0.81x suggests the stock’s movement is generally in line with the broader market. Combined with a low 30-day annualized volatility of 15.4%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

52 Week High$43.30
52 Week Low$30.57
50 Day MA$40.65
200 Day MA$38.22
Beta0.81x
Volatility (30d Ann.)15.4% 📉

Dividends Shareholder Returns

Dividend Summary & Investor Implications

The company currently offers a $3.38 annual dividend per share, translating to a dividend yield of 8.02%—meaning for every $100 invested, shareholders receive $3.38 in dividends annually. This yield is below the 5-year average of 8.31%, suggesting that either the stock price has risen (reducing the yield) or dividend growth hasn’t kept pace with historical trends.

Key Observations & Analysis:

  • The payout ratio of 99.11% is high (warranting a check on cash flow sustainability), indicating the company uses only ~99% of its earnings to fund dividends. This leaves ample room for future increases or reinvestment in growth.
  • The very low trailing yield of 8.00% hints at a recent dividend initiation or a special, non-recurring payout, warranting further checks for consistency.
  • Investors must own the stock before the upcoming ex-dividend date of 2025-08-04 to receive the next dividend.
  • The last stock split (2:1 in 1998) is outdated and likely irrelevant to the current valuation.

Investor Takeaway:

  • Income Investors: The dividend appears sustainable, but investors should monitor earnings and cash flow to ensure the payout remains well-supported.
  • Growth Investors: The company maintains a balance between shareholder returns and reinvestment, appealing to a ‘growth and income’ strategy.
  • Watch For: Announcements of dividend hikes (which could bring the yield closer to its historical average) or significant stock price changes that would alter the yield.

Dividend Rate$3.38
Dividend Yield8.02%
Payout Ratio99.11%
5 Year Average Dividend Yield8.31%
Trailing Dividend Rate$3.38
Trailing Dividend Yield0.08%
Ex-Dividend Date2025-08-04
Last Split Date1998-04-03
Last Split Factor2:1

Risk Factors

Potential investors in AB should be aware of several risk factors. The following list highlights key considerations based on data and market dynamics, but may not include all possible risks.

  • ⚠️ Overall market fluctuations can impact the stock.
  • ⚠️ Factors specific to the Asset Management industry or Financial Services sector can affect performance.
  • ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
  • ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.

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