ABR Stock: The Surprising Truth Behind Recent Moves

The detailed monthy forecast below outlines the model’s expectations for ABR’s price evolution ($11.14 to $16.73). It includes projected ranges (Min, Avg, Max), potential ROI based on the average projection versus the current price, and a derived model signal for each period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-08 to 2026-08), ABR’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $11.14 and $16.73.

Forecast uncertainty appears steady, with the price range ($11.20 – $11.20 to $11.90 – $16.43) showing little change over the horizon.

ABR demonstrates, with its Trailing P/E at 12.96x and Forward P/E at 7.62x, suggests an attractive valuation opportunity. This suggests potential earnings growth expectations Meanwhile, its Price/Sales ratio of 4.05x and Price/Book of 0.96x show that the company trades at multiples that warrant attention. These metrics provide insight into market positioning.

From an enterprise value perspective, The enterprise value to revenue ratio of 21.52x indicates reasonable revenue-based valuation. These valuation metrics provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current market positioning.

Although the market considers Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. to be a key player in the REIT – Mortgage industry with a 2.43 B market cap, its enterprise value is much higher at 12.36 B, with 9.93B of that value added by debt. Investors are confident about Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.’s future earnings, but keep in mind the risk of that large amount of debt.

The upcoming 2025-08-01 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.’s businesses can grow into this valuation, while the 2025-08-15 ex-dividend date serves as a reminder that Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. still rewards shareholders even as it invests for growth. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

An analysis of the key metrics in ABR’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 87.72%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 25.17% operating margin. A 0.00% EBITDA margin indicates ABR is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, ABR can hold onto around $35.590 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at a slow rate (-9.30%), investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding profit margins.

ABR’s N/A in EBITDA and 526.83 M in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the 172.39 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. From these indicators, it becomes clear that the company is currently prioritizing strong profitability over rapid, top-line growth. Despite healthy gross margins, there is a significant difference between the company’s gross and net margins (87.72% vs. 35.59%). This is likely due to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to watch. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. ABR needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on ABR. The average recommendation is ‘Hold’. This consensus is based on opinions from 4 analysts(s). Targets average $11.75 (within a range of $11.00 – $13.50). Based on the mean target ($11.75), this implies a potential upside of ~4.9% from the current price ($11.20). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.

ABRs financial data clearly shows that strengths and weaknesses can appear together. The ROE and ROA of 7.28% and 1.65%, respectively, reflect a highly efficient use of capital, often seen in fast-growing firms. The 3.29x Debt/Equity ratio (with 10.19 B in debt and 257.78 M in cash) points to the fact that ABR has taken on a very high level of debt to fuel its operations and growth. Even with its debt, the company’s ability to bring in 342.23 M in operating cash flow (TTM) proves that its core business can steadily produce cash, which is a significant strength.

The Current Ratio of 2.60x and Quick Ratio of 2.50x show a solid liquidity position, able to cover its short-term liabilities.

In the recent trading period from July 18, 2025 to August 01, 2025, ABR’s stock price achieved a total return of -0.09%. The price fluctuated between a high of $12.22 and a low of $10.95. Average daily trading volume was approximately 2,848,660 shares.

There is currently 56 M worth of short interest in ABR, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 22.0x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take several days for all short positions to be covered. This high level indicates it would take a long time for short sellers to buy back their shares, which could lead to extreme volatility or a powerful ‘short squeeze’ if the stock’s price starts to rise unexpectedly.

With 34.91% of the public float sold short, a high percentage of the float is being shorted, signaling significant bearish conviction from a portion of the market. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s value of 58 M, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. With notable short interest, investors should be aware of potential volatility spikes, which could be triggered by news events that force short sellers to cover their positions.

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $15.94 and a low of $8.43. This wide gap tells us the stock has been through significant fluctuations, likely influenced by market sentiment or company-specific news. Currently, the 50-day moving average stands at $10.99, which is slightly below the 200-day moving average of $11.23. This setup may signal a short-term pullback or consolidation phase, especially for technical traders tracking momentum and trend direction.

The stock carries a beta of 1.30x, which means it tends to move more sharply than the broader market—about 30% more volatile. Combined with a moderate 30-day annualized volatility of 25.5%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

Potential investors in ABR should be aware of several risk factors. The following list highlights key considerations based on data and market dynamics, but may not include all possible risks.